I like the way you... always get it wrong...

Hey everyone,
This here blog entry will be a two-parter. I just got back from an amazing trip to Italy, so that will be covered in the second part of the blog entry (and a second post). But also, the NHL trade deadline just passed, and I'm not around to talk about it with anyone or to give my take on things, so this entry will do just that.

So here it is. My *disappointed* Trade Deadline 2007 Recap + Official Dan Kramer Predictions Post.

First, let's look at some of the moves that did go down at the deadline. Here are, IMO, 10 of the biggest moves, in no particular order. Seeing as I left for Italy on February 23rd, the following will include only deals that took place from the 23rd to the 27th, so things like the Peter Forsberg or Ladislav Nagy trades were not considered.

1. To the New York Islanders: Ryan Smyth
To the Edmonton Oilers: 1st Round Pick 2007, Robert Nilsson, Ryan O'Marra

This is quite possibly the deadline deal that surprised me the most. The Islanders appeared as though they may be sellers at this year's deadline weeks ago, when they already sent off overpaid, underperforming veterans Alexei Zhitnik and Mike York for what amounts to future considerations. But the team kept winning, and so they switched to buyer mode and landed likely the best player to be traded since Mr. Forsberg. But it is a strange fit. First, Edmonton seemed to have very little interest in trading Smyth, but I guess their preliminary contract talks were not going so well. Second, the Islanders are certainly not Cup favourites in anyone's book, and they were willing to part with two bluechip prospects as well as what will be a mid-first round pick for a guy who will be an unrestricted free agent in a couple of months. What I can tell you, though, despite the strange ramifications, is that both sides of this deal are getting nice packages. Ryan Smyth is a guy I've wanted in a Habs jersey for as long as I can remember, and the Oilers are receiving some young players to even further the wealth they have at the forward position. The additions of Smyth, Marc-Andre Bergeron, and Richard Zednik to fill out their roster should help the Islanders lock down a playoff spot, which is bad news for teams like the Habs who were battling it out with them. And a top 6 up front of Alexei Yashin, Jason Blake, Viktor Kozlov, Miroslav Satan, Zednik, and Smyth is a very solid one that could turn this "team that came out of nowhere" into a team to look out for.

2. To the Detroit Red Wings: Todd Bertuzzi
To the Florida Panthers: Shawn Matthias, Conditional 2007 Draft Picks, a Conditional 2008 2nd Rounder

Though the deadline has past, this is a trade that won't be decided for quite some time. Had he been healthy, Bertuzzi would have been a hot commodity at the deadline, but unfortunately for the Panthers, they had to search for a club willing to take a risk on a guy who hasn't played for months. And that team was the Detroit Red Wings... sort of... I like this move for Detroit as the picks being conditional provides them with some damage control for potentially damaged good. And the possibility of playing Bertuzzi on a line with a guy like Datsyuk or Zetterberg could work out into a lethal combination. That said, Detroit straight up loses a decent prospect, and they may be regretting this move should Todd not recuperate fully in time to hlep the Wings on their quest.

3. To the Atlanta Thrashers: Keith Tkachuk
To the St. Louis Blues: Glen Metropolit, 1st Round Draft Pick in 2007, 3rd Round Draft Pick in 2007, 2nd Round Draft Pick in 2008.

This trade is very remniscent of the deal that sent Doug Weight to the eventual Stanley Cup champion Carolina Hurricanes one year ago. So does that mean this is a deal to push the Thrashers over the top? Maybe not. Atlanta has struggled the past little while, and while adding Tkachuk to the likes of Ilya Kovalchuk and Marian Hossa up front makes this team a very dangerous one, they didn't do enough about addressing their back end, and thus will need the young Kari Lehtonen to stand tall in goal throughout the playoffs for this trade to pay dividends. The Blues, clearly in full rebuild mode, add a gap-filling roster player, and pick up some picks to provide Erik Johnson company in the stable.

4. To the Buffalo Sabres: Dainius Zubrus, Timo Helbling
To the Washington Capitals: 1st Round Pick 2007, Jiri Novotny

The Sabres were a busy team at the deadline, but this was clearly their biggest deal. They bring in a guy who came into his own in Washington in Zubrus, but just how inflated was his offensive production from being paired with Alexander Ovechkin for the past year and a half? It's not like he'll be playing with slouches in Buffalo either, but a 1st rounder (albeit a very late one) and a very strong prospect like Novotny is a pretty big price to pay. But when your cup chances are as good as Buffalo's have to be, you are willing to pay that price to gain any edge. Washington does well for a mid-level soon-to-be-UFA, and if Zubrus's talk about wanting to re-sign in Washington this summer is in fact true, the Capitals should indeed be very pleased with the return.

5. To the Pittsburgh Penguins: Gary Roberts
To the Florida Panthers: Noah Welch

Another one that for me falls into the "strange" category. Roberts is a great leader and a tremendous asset for a playoff run, and certainly the Pittsburgh Penguins have of late shown that they may be capable of a lengthy run. But if there is an area that they crucially needed to shore up, it was their blueline. Instead, they part with a young defenseman (though one who is often pretty overrated IMO) and bring in a 40-year old forward to a core that consists of more than enough firepower in the form of Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Jordan Staal, and Mark Recchi. Seemingly desperate, the Penguins did move a draft pick to acquire defensemen Joel Kwiatkowski later on, but that's far from a huge addition. Florida meanwhile parts with a UFA/retiree and offers a young man with a lot of potential a chance to start in a new environment.

6. To the San Jose Sharks: Craig Rivet, 5th Round Pick 2008
To the Montreal Canadiens: Josh Gorges, 1st Round Pick 2007

I'm sure you all knew I'd be getting to this one. I wasn't surprised to find out that Mr. Rivet had been dealt. I wish him all the best in San Jose (but not a Cup, because that would make our 1st rounder drop to 30th overall!). He may not be blessed with the greatest skillset, but he is a tremendous character for the lockerroom, and always gives his 100%. I'm very very pleased with the return we received for Craig. A 1st round pick from the Sharks means 20-something-th, but it's a first rounder all the same, and Gorges is still young and was playing decent minutes in San Jose. Unfortunately, Montreal is not set up very well for Josh, as we are already overpaying two guys who are clearly #5/6 d-men in Craig Rivet and Mathieu Dandenault, and that is all Gorges is. All in all, I was very happy with this part of the trade, but thought it may have been clearing room for something else, which it turns out, it wasn't. From the San Jose side, they get some veteran help where they needed it most, on D, and cemented themselves as serious contenders.

7. To the Detroit Red Wings: Kyle Calder
To the Chicago Blackhawks: Jason Williams
To the Philadelphia Flyers: Lasse Kukkonen, Chicago 3rd Round Draft Pick 2007

Three-way trades are not the most common thing in hockey, but they do happen from time to time, and when Chicago went out and re-acquired soon-to-be UFA Calder, it was clear it was part of something bigger. So who wins here? Chicago acquires a versatile young goal scorer in Williams, and Philly picks up a solid young defender and a pick. Detroit ends up with a decent forward for the remainder of the year who is undoubtedly having one of his worst offensive seasons to date. I don't think this trade makes the Wings a better team at all, but it isn't a huge deal that will break them either of course.

8. To the Dallas Stars: Mattias Norstrom, Konstantin Pushkarov, 3rd Round Pick 2007, 4th Round Pick 2007
To the Los Angeles Kings: Jaroslav Modry, Johan Fransson, 1st Round Pick 2008, 2nd Round Pick 2007, 3rd Round Pick 2007

Lots to look at in this deal, but the main piece of the puzzle is clearly Mattias Norstrom going to Dallas while a 1st round pick goes the other way. After adding Ladislav Nagy to their offense not long ago, the Stars add a legit top 2 pairing d-man who is a proven winner and leader. He is saddled down with a long and heavy contract, but these additions have to have Stars fans beliving in their chances now. A shutdown, defensive d-man like Norstrom may be just what the doctor ordered to help Marty Turco get over what has seemed like his annual playoff jynx of late. The Kings receive some pick upgrades, a stop-gap offensive d-man to replace Norstrom, and a younger d-man, while clearing some cap space and continuing with the rebuild they have begun.

9. To the Tampa Bay Lightning: Shane O'Brien, 3rd Round Pick 2007
To the Anaheim Mighty Ducks: Gerald Coleman, 1st Round Pick 2007

Brian Burke has a history of confusing me with his trades, and maybe that's why he's one of the best GMs in the league. But why does a team clearly intent on making a lengthy postseason run this year deal away a young defenseman who is already making a big impact for a mid-level goaltender prospect and a draft pick? You've got me on that one. Maybe Burke was unhappy over how much of the team's future he had to mortgage to acquire Chris Pronger last summer, and felt the need to bring in a first rounder? Tampa's choice figures to fall into the 15-20 range depending on how the rest of the year plays out for them, but that won't help the Ducks come crunch time in April, May, and early June. Coleman was needed to replace Michael Wall down in the AHL, who Anaheim dealt to Colorado to bring in Brady May, but Burke had to feel left out when his rivals like Detroit (Bertuzzi) and Nashville (Forsberg) made huge splashes and he could do nothing to further increase his team's depth. That said, y'all know I'm a Ducks fan, and I still believe this team has what it takes to go very deep.

10. To the San Jose Sharks: Bill Guerin
To the St. Louis Blues: New Jersey's First Round Pick 2007, Ville Niemenen, Jay Barriball

The Sharks also added a big name up front, and their offensive strength continues to grow, as Guerin joins Patrick Marleau, Joe Thornton, Jonathan Cheechoo, Milan Michalek, and others on a dangerous but somewhat inconsistant club. A late first, roleplayer, and unheralded prospect seem like a fair price for a rental of Guerin's quality, so I'll call this an even deal.


Well I only wanted to list 10 trades, but there are still many more significant ones, so here's a quick breakdown of a few others.
- Boston trades Brad Boyes to St. Louis for Denis Wideman: Edge to St. Louis in the shootout department certainly, and overall as well.
- Phoenix trades George Laraque to Pittsburgh for Daniel Carcillo and a 3rd Round Draft Pick 2008: Not an awful return for the Coyotes, but important move for Pittsburgh to bring in a bodyguard who can also contribute offensively.
- Buffalo trades Martin Biron to Philadelphia for a 2nd Round Pick 2007: An answer to Philadelphia's seemingly eternal goaltending woes? Perhaps. They'll need to re-sign him first, but it seems that he is content to be a Flyer. Meanwhile Buffalo picks up a "nearly" 1st round pick.
- Columbus trades Ty Conklin to Buffalo for a 5th Round Pick 2007: The Sabres had better hope Ryan Miller stays healthy or else the lack of Biron will cost them any shot they had at the Cup.
- Philadelphia trades Alexei Zhitnik to Atlanta for Braydon Coburn: The was-highly-touted-but-now-is-stagnant prospect for the once-was-great-but-now-is-mediocre-and-overpaid player is a common deal in NHL terms. Zhitnik isn't Atlanta's answer on D, and Coburn will need a big change to get his career back on track.
- Chicago trades Bryan Smolinski to Vancouver for a conditional 2nd Round Pick: What surprises me here is the Canucks were willing to give up a 2nd rounder to grab Smolinsik, when I would have imagined they'd have been interested in bringing back Anson Carter instead who went to Carolina for a lowly 5th round pick. All the same, Smolinski is a more complete and consistent player who will help the Canucks down the stretch.

So that's a summary of what went on. Now what does it mean?

First and foremost, I am not happy. The Canadiens didn't make the big move, and they seldom do. One can't really blame them with the way the team has played since I left Montreal, but when you see all of your conference rivals (Islanders, Penguins, Thrashers...) stocking up, you need to follow suit or be left behind. And Montreal was definitely left behind. As of today, I don't believe much in the team's playoff chances. I'll still support them to the very end, but this team needs to somehow re-find its early season form both without Cristobal Huet, and quickly, or else it's curtains on 06-07.

So if the Canadiens were a loser (at least for the immediate future) on deadline day, who won?

San Jose dealt away both of the first round picks they had, but nicely solidified their line-up with some size and grit for both ends of the rink.

St. Louis managed to pick up 2 first round picks, as well as a young offensive player in Brad Boyes, all of which should go a long way to help their rebuild.

And the Detroit Red Wings and New York Islanders both have the potential to come up big, by adding possible gamebreakers Bertuzzi and Smyth respectively. Tkachuk and Guerin may be great players, but I'd take Todd or Ryan over either for their complete, tough game, and that is perfect come playoff time.

And so what does the league now look like? This is my view:

TOP CONTENDERS
Buffalo Sabres
Nashville Predators
New Jersey Devils
Anaheim Ducks
San Jose Sharks

CONTENDERS
Detroit Red Wings
Dallas Stars
Ottawa Senators
Vancouver Canucks

PLAYOFF TEAMS
Pittsburgh Penguins
Calgary Flames
Atlanta Thrashers
New York Islanders

BORDER TEAMS
Montreal Canadiens
Tampa Bay Lightning
Minnesota Wild
Carolina Hurricanes
Toronto Maple Leafs

It should be an interesting battle from here on out.

If I had to make some predictions:
- The Ottawa Senators will lose to the Pittsburgh Penguins in the first round of the playoffs.
- The Eastern Conference finals will feature only ONE of the Buffalo Sabres or New Jersey Devils, and they will be facing the Atlanta Thrashers.
- The San Jose Sharks will choke in the first round of the playoffs, establishing themselves as the Ottawa Senators of the West.
- The Nashville Predators will beat the Anaheim Ducks in a tight, 7-game conference final.

The Predators will go on to win the Stanley Cup, proving that the Cup is not won on Deadline Day. They may have acquired Peter Forsberg this month, but they did not make a single move in the just under 2 weeks following that deal that they could have.

See you in part 2 (aka my trip to Italy).

Dan